The study addresses three core questions: (1) How trade tensions influence nickel demand, visualized through causal loop diagrams; (2) The potential effects of escalation/de-escalation scenarios; and (3) Strategic measures for Indonesia to enhance nickel demand resilience.

Through a systematic literature review with content analysis, the research establishes the state-of-the-art (SOTA) and identifies key variables for modeling, including trade policies, foreign direct investment (FDI), and environmental regulations. The methodology combines content analysis of academic and industry literature with system dynamics modeling (CLDs and SFDs) to map relationships between geopolitical factors and commodity demand. The systematic review informs variable selection and model boundaries, ensuring relevance to Indonesia's position as the world's top nickel producer. Scenario analyses will test how different trade conflict outcomes affect demand dynamics.

This research contributes by: (1) Developing an evidence-based system dynamics model grounded in comprehensive literature analysis; (2) Providing scenario-based insights for Indonesian policymakers; and (3) Establishing a framework for analyzing geopolitical impacts on mineral markets. The findings aim to support sustainable nickel sector development amid global trade uncertainties.