Fuzzy Time Series Methods for Forecasting

The rapid growth of time-series data in domains such as energy, finance, and IoT has intensified the trade-off between model interpretability and forecasting performance. Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) methods offer transparent, rule-based forecasts but lack systematic comparison against modern neural and linear approaches across varied real-world settings.

Vakayil, Sherin, 2025

Type of Thesis Master Thesis
Client
Supervisor Hanne, Thomas
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To address this, three FTS variants - Chen’s original model, a heuristic high-order extension, and an FTS-MLP hybrid - are benchmarked alongside a recurrent neural network (RNN), the transformer-based PatchTST, and the channel-independent linear model NLinear. A total of 95 series (70 univariate, 25 multivariate) from the Towards Fair Benchmarking (TFB) suite, spanning ten domains and annotated for trend, seasonality, and stationarity, serve as the testbed.
Results indicate that the Hybrid FTS-MLP achieves the most balanced accuracy among fuzzy methods - particularly in volatile and multivariate contexts - while Chen’s model excels on strongly seasonal univariate series. Although PatchTST and NLinear maintain overall superiority, FTS approaches demonstrate competitiveness in niche scenarios. The study concludes with recommendations for automated hyper-parameter tuning, rule-base compression, and patch-style context windows to enhance FTS adaptability and narrow the remaining performance gap.
Studyprogram: Business Information Systems (Master)
Keywords
Confidentiality: öffentlich
Type of Thesis
Master Thesis
Authors
Vakayil, Sherin
Supervisor
Hanne, Thomas
Publication Year
2025
Thesis Language
English
Confidentiality
Public
Studyprogram
Business Information Systems (Master)
Location
Olten